This year's carbon budget shows that the long-term rate of increasing fossil emissions has slowed. The ocean and land CO 2 sinks are still increasing in response to the atmospheric CO 2 increase, although climate change reduced this growth by an estimated 4% (ocean sink) and 17% (land sink) over the 2012-2021 decade. Land and ocean, which absorb and store carbon, continue to take up around half of the CO 2 emissions. To reach zero CO 2 emissions by 2050 would now require a decrease of about 1.4 GtCO 2 each year, comparable to the observed fall in 2020 emissions resulting from COVID-19 lockdowns, highlighting the scale of the action required. The remaining carbon budget for a 50% likelihood to limit global warming to 1.5☌ has reduced to 380 GtCO2 (exceeded after nine years if emissions remain at 2022 levels) and 1230 GtCO2 to limit to 2☌ (30 years at 2022 emissions levels). The 2022 picture among major emitters is mixed: emissions are projected to fall in China (0.9%) and the EU (0.8%), and increase in the USA (1.5%) and India (6%), with a 1.7% rise in the rest of the world combined. The growth in oil emissions can be largely explained by the delayed rebound of international aviation following COVID-19 pandemic restrictions. Projected emissions from coal and oil are above their 2021 levels, with oil being the largest contributor to total emissions growth. Emissions from land-use change (such as deforestation) are projected to be 3.9 GtCO 2 in 2022. ![]() This is fuelled by fossil CO2 emissions which are projected to rise 1.0% compared to 2021, reaching 36.6 GtCO 2 - slightly above the 2019 pre-COVID-19 levels. The new report projects total global CO 2 emissions of 40.6 billion tonnes (GtCO 2) in 2022. ![]() If current emissions levels persist, there is now a 50% chance that global warming of 1.5☌ will be exceeded in nine years.
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